Market Analyses - Bloomberg's Compilation

Image result for bull v bear

Bloomberg has provided a helpful compilation of projections for 2019. America's unstable Presidency and/or divided government has already caused global financial turmoil (most notably in China), and it is clear that a period of discomfort may be in the works.



Stocks - 2019 will be a volatile year. Europe has limited upside but "hefty downside" risk. In US, earnings growth likely to slow, suggesting more limited stock appreciation. Crucially, Morgan Stanley takes the following position: In equities, emerging markets and Japan are our most preferred regions, and U.S. remains our least-favored region.

Bonds - Key risk is slower growth on a global scale. Crucially, Brooks Macdonald: We expect fixed income markets to be weighed by slowly tightening global monetary policy. Furthermore, the Treasury market faces the headwind of rising U.S. government debt issuance in the second half of 2019 and this could have negative ramifications for bond markets globally.

Currencies - Key currencies EUR, USD, JPY; Russell Investments: U.S. dollar to have modest upside potential; Japanese yen to be the strongest major currency.

I am inclined to place more weight on predictions that the US dollar would either be stable or weaker. 2018 has seen an almost relentless surge in the value of the US dollar against other major currencies. The EURUSD currency pair dropped from a peak of 1.25 in early 2018 to the current 1.13-1.14 range. That's more than a 1000 pip decrease.


Post a Comment


What can we do about Political Correctness?

Book Review: Noam Chomsky's Who Rules The World?

Donald Trump and the Power of Rhetoric